Show Notes
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#businessmeasurement #decisionanalysis #valueofinformation #riskquantification #calibratedestimation #HowtoMeasureAnything
These are takeaways from this book.
Firstly, Redefining measurement as uncertainty reduction, A core message of the book is that measurement is not about achieving perfect precision. It is about reducing uncertainty so decisions improve. Many organizations treat measurement as synonymous with exactness and therefore avoid measuring anything that looks subjective or hard to quantify. Hubbard challenges this by using a practical definition: a measurement is any observation that meaningfully narrows a range of plausible values. If you can state what you know now as a range, then any data that shrinks that range is progress. This viewpoint immediately makes intangibles measurable because you can always begin with an estimate and quantify your current uncertainty. The approach also forces clarity about the decision. You measure something only because it affects an outcome you care about, such as cost, risk, revenue, time, quality, or compliance. By linking measurement to decision impact, the book pushes readers to stop collecting metrics for vanity or reporting. It promotes a mindset where even small, cheap measurements can be valuable if they change a decision, reduce risk exposure, or prevent waste. Measurement becomes a management tool, not a scientific trophy.
Secondly, Calibrated estimation and building better expert judgments, Because many business questions lack abundant historical data, the book emphasizes calibrated estimation, improving how people express uncertainty. Teams often provide single point guesses, then argue endlessly about whose guess feels right. Hubbard advocates expressing estimates as ranges with stated confidence, then testing whether those ranges are well calibrated over time. Calibration is a learnable skill: by practicing, experts can avoid overconfidence and become more accurate at describing what they do not know. This is especially relevant for technology projects, market sizing, forecasting demand, or assessing operational risk, where stakeholders have experience but not perfect data. The method encourages breaking a big unknown into smaller estimable components, checking base rates, and using simple feedback loops to refine judgment. The benefit is twofold. First, it produces inputs that work with probability based decision tools rather than vague opinions. Second, it changes team behavior: discussions shift from defending certainty to examining assumptions and information gaps. In management settings, calibrated estimation can also reveal where a fast measurement would be most valuable, because it highlights which assumptions are driving the widest uncertainty and therefore the greatest decision risk.
Thirdly, Valuing information and prioritizing what to measure, A distinctive contribution of the book is its focus on deciding whether a measurement is worth doing. Instead of defaulting to extensive dashboards or expensive research, Hubbard applies decision analysis ideas to measurement itself. The question becomes: how much is additional information worth, given the decision at hand? If a decision has low stakes or the uncertainty does not change the recommended action, then measurement effort is wasteful. Conversely, if a small amount of data could flip a choice, prevent a costly mistake, or reduce a large risk, then even a modest measurement can pay off quickly. The book frames this using the concept of the value of information, which compares the expected improvement in outcomes from better knowledge against the cost of obtaining it. This helps managers stop measuring everything and start measuring what matters most. It also legitimizes lightweight experiments and quick sampling. For example, a few targeted observations, a small survey, or a limited security test may deliver enough uncertainty reduction to justify or redirect a major initiative. The practical outcome is a prioritization discipline that aligns analytics budgets with business impact.
Fourthly, Applying probabilistic reasoning to business risks and intangibles, The book encourages readers to treat uncertainty explicitly through probability. Many so called intangible topics are actually risk questions in disguise: the likelihood and impact of customer churn, the probability of a project delay, the expected loss from a cyber incident, or the chance that a new feature increases conversion. Hubbard argues that when you express these issues in probabilistic terms, you can measure them using available data, expert judgment, and structured models. The emphasis is not on sophisticated math for its own sake, but on avoiding common reasoning errors, such as confusing worst case stories with likely outcomes or treating unknowns as unmanageable. By using probability distributions rather than single numbers, teams can see the range of possible results and focus on what drives the spread. This supports better risk management decisions, like selecting controls based on expected loss reduction rather than fear or compliance theater. It also helps quantify benefits that are typically described qualitatively, such as improved morale or brand strength, by connecting them to measurable downstream effects like retention, price sensitivity, referral rates, and productivity. The approach turns soft factors into decision inputs.
Lastly, Practical measurement methods: sampling, experiments, and indirect indicators, A recurring theme is that organizations can measure far more than they think using simple, often low cost techniques. The book highlights pragmatic tools such as random sampling, small experiments, and the use of indirect but meaningful proxies. Instead of attempting to survey everyone, audit every transaction, or run massive studies, you can sample a subset and still gain reliable insights with quantified error margins. When direct measurement seems impossible, you can identify observable indicators that correlate with what you care about. For example, employee engagement can be approached through retention patterns, absenteeism, internal mobility, and targeted pulse surveys. Brand value discussions can be grounded in price premium, share of search, conversion changes, or customer lifetime value shifts. Security posture can be measured through frequency of vulnerabilities, time to remediate, and incident response performance. The book also promotes iterative measurement: start with the cheapest observation that reduces uncertainty, then refine only if the decision still depends on what you do not know. This prevents analysis paralysis while still building a defensible, data informed basis for action. The methods are designed to be accessible to managers, not just data scientists.